Baseball Hall of Fame 2023 Announcement: Date, Time, TV Channel, How to Watch Online, Predictions, Stories

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The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) voting results for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be released on Tuesday night. Much of the thinking in this poll will revolve around whether Scott Rolen and/or Todd Helton will make it, the gains made by several players and the success of Alex Rodríguez and Carlos Beltrán. The the complete 2023 ballot can be viewed here.

The rules: A player can be placed on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who receive at least 75 percent of the votes returned from qualified BBWAA voters are inducted into the Hall of Fame. Those who get under five percent fall off the ballot. Those between five and 75 percent can remain on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active and in good standing and have been so for at least 10 years can vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players each year.

Regardless of what goes down in the BBWAA vote, there is already a new Hall of Famer in the class of 2023: Fred McGriff. He did it through them Modern Times Committee vote held at winter meetings.

Here are the details for Tuesday’s election show:

Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2023 Announcement

  • Hour: 6 pm ET| Date: Tuesday, January 24
  • television channel: MLB Network (broadcast begins at 4 p.m. ET and lasts four hours)
  • Live stream: fuboTV (try free)

Below are six stories to watch as the vote numbers are released on Tuesday night. NOTE: When I refer to “vote,” I’m talking about Ballot tracker Ryan Thibodaux (it’s not a poll so much as a vote-gatherer, but it’s the easiest way to design it quickly).

1. Is this Rolen’s year?

Scott Rolen’s climb in the poll has a “when, not if” feel to it. It’s really more than a feeling. last month, I recently went through historic voting trends to show that Rolen is very likely to get in.

It still matters whether it’s this year or next year or the year after that, though. First off, from a human perspective, Rolen is certainly excited to get in and if he just misses the cut, it’s another year of waiting. In terms of big picture Hall of Fame voting, it’s a spot on the ballot and the clearance helps all other legitimate candidates. Remember, voters only have a maximum of 10 spots on their ballot and some Big Hall voters artificially limit themselves beyond that. More specifically, the sooner Rolen gets off the ballot, the easier it will be for all other players to benefit – including next year’s rookies Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.

Polls show Rolen has a good chance of reaching the required 75 percent, but he seems to have a very reasonable chance of falling short. He was polling at 71 percent last year and the actual poll showed him at 63.2 percent. Currently, he is sitting at 79.2 percent in the poll and if there is a similar shortfall in private ballots, he will be just a few percent shy of it.

Like I said, it will be close. This is where most of the drama is for Tuesday night’s vote.

2. Numbers still low for A-Rod?

A-Rod he has a polarizing issue. We already know that. I strongly believe that this is a great year on the ballot for A-Rod. If he gains big, chances are he’ll make the Hall down the road. If he doesn’t, he’ll likely end up in Bonds Land. I went much deeper into the theory here.

The numbers right now are not good for A-Rod. Polls show he has only gained two votes since last year (when he was 161 votes shy of defence). It’s always possible there’s a cache of non-public votes for A-Rod, but there wasn’t last year. Right now, it looks like it will fall short of 40 percent and if that’s true, it’s hard to see it making up enough ground moving forward to get to 75 percent.

3. How does the sign stealing scandal affect Beltran?

We’ve been able to get a general idea of ​​how players linked to PEDs would be treated, in general, by the voting body for years. In Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, we have two all-time greats who never tested positive while testing, but who were closely related. In Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez, we’ve had players who put up Hall of Fame offensive numbers but were positive. In A-Rod, well, you know.

We don’t have a good comparison between this voting group and Beltran, however, and it could provide a road map for how things will go for Jose Altuve and others down the road. Here you go my extended discussion of his case and the case of the sign theft scandal.

Polls show him leading A-Rod by about 15 percent at 55.7 to 40.4, so that’s probably a good sign for Beltran. Several voters have written that they have held a vote for him this year but would think about it again next year. If he gets about 50 percent of the vote, I’ll estimate, he has a chance to get in down the road. If he ends up closer to A-Rod, let’s say low-40s, he might be there for 10 long years.

Other than seeing if Rolen gets in or not, this is the story that will get my attention the most on Tuesday night.

4. Helton on the move

But what if Rolen is the only player with a chance to do it?

Last year, Helton received 52 percent of the vote compared to Rolen’s 63.2 percent, but Helton has made significant gains. He is already up 32 votes and has passed Rolen, sitting at 79.8 percent. It would be a remarkable step forward, but the voting body as a whole seems to have warmed strongly to Helton’s claim.

It’s a bit of a polarizing issue, but not for scandal reasons. He played his entire career with Coors Field as his home. I researched the issue here.

If there is a big upset on Tuesday night, it will be Helton who becomes a Hall of Famer.

5. Look for benefits

Let’s take a look at the following players in addition to those mentioned above:

  • Billy Wagner: After jumping nearly 30 points in two years to 46.4 for the 2021 vote, Wagner made smaller gains to 51 percent last year. However, the poll shows that he has received 29 votes in this round of voting. This is its eighth year and a great opportunity, with the entire ballot going on from the last voting cycle, to jump into real territory.
  • Gary Sheffield: After a huge two-year jump to 40.6 in the 2021 vote, Sheffield slipped to just 40.6 per cent again. This is his ninth year on the ballot and he needs a big jump to have even a remote shot next year. Polling shows have received 26 votes so far, so he may be on the way, however, in reality, the lack of gains last year killed him.
  • Andrew Jones: Little more than an afterthought that stayed on the ballot in his first two years, Jones hit 19.4 percent in 2020, 33.9 percent in 2021 and 41.1 percent last year. Now in his sixth ballot, the administrator has received 24 more votes. It is likely to be higher than 50 percent or maybe even 55? If the latter is true, it is well on its way to being tuned.
  • Bobby Abreu: He only received 8.6 percent of the vote last year, but has received 12 votes so far in the poll. This is his fourth attempt.
  • Andrew Petitte: In his fourth voting cycle last year, Pettette received 10.7 percent of the vote and has received 13 votes this time.
  • Jimmy Rollins: He received 9.4 percent of the vote in his first run last year and has received five votes this time.
  • Mark Buehrle: He stayed above the threshold in each of his first two bids (5.8 percent last year) and has received nine votes.

Wagner and Jones are the biggest ones to watch while it’s possible that Buehrle and Rollins will barely stay alive.

6. Who falls off?

  • Jeff Kent: This is his swan song; his 10th and final year. Even with a decent bump in the last year in polling data, it’s highly unlikely he’ll even get to 60 percent. I gave details here that his case will probably get much better in the committee and how this is a blessing in disguise for him.
  • Torii Hunter: With just 5.3 percent last year in his first attempt, Hunter barely survived. His public benefits are moderate enough to believe there is a chance he will fall below 5 percent.
  • Francisco Rodríguez: This is the first year for K-Rod and it looks like he will survive, but it will likely be very close. A poll shows him around nine percent, but as it gets closer, I think he loses some before the vote is released.
  • Omar Vizquel: It is very likely that he will survive. It’s fine with K-Rod, but the remaining Vizquel voters are almost all private. It scored nearly 14 percent last year between ballot tracing and the actual vote results. He’s still dead in the water as far as his chances of making the Hall, though, here in his sixth attempt.
  • None of the remaining first-timers on the ballot have received a public vote yet. These are Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, R. A. Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andrew Ethier, JJ Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Jonny Peralta, Huston Street, Jared Weaver and Jayson Werth. Even if a few of them get a vote or two, they are all singles.

Of those with the 5 percent threshold, I predict Hunter will fall as long as K-Rod and Vizquel survive.

He’s the only other person on the ballot I haven’t mentioned yet Mani Ramirez. He will most likely end up in no man’s land with Vizquel, albeit for different reasons. He received 28.9 percent of the vote last year and his opinion poll shows stagnation.

7. Donation

Back on November 22, I expected McGriff and Rolen to be in this class. I blocked the committee vote with McGriff going in alone, so let’s make it two for two in getting the BBWAA guy right as well. Rolen goes in and that’s it from this vote.

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