Erdogan ahead after scandalous campaigns

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People walk past an election campaign poster for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 25, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. The country is holding its first presidential election after one candidate won more than 50% of the vote in the May 14 election.

Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Millions of Turks are casting their ballots Sunday for the second time in two weeks to decide the outcome of the closest presidential race in Turkey’s history.

Powerful President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, faced opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in what many described as the worst fight of Erdogan’s political life and a potential death blow to his 20-year rule. But the first round of voting – which saw a huge turnout of 86.2% – was a disappointment for the opposition, with 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu trailing by around 5 percentage points.

However, no candidate passed the 50% threshold required to win; and with Erdogan at 49.5% and Kilicdaroglu at 44.7%, a runoff election was set for two weeks after the first vote on May 14. The winner will preside over a country divided in flux, cost of living crises, complex security issues. , and – as the second largest weapon in NATO and a key mediator between Ukraine and Russia – an increasingly important role in global geopolitics.

Country analysts are almost certain about Erdogan’s victory.

“We expect Turkish President Erdogan to extend his rule to his third decade in the run-off election on May 28, with our judgment-based forecast assigning an 87% chance of winning,” Hamish Kinnear said , senior MENA analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, in a research note.

In two short weeks, some of the candidates’ campaign messages have changed significantly, and both contenders have doubled down on malicious accusations, hard-line nationalism, and scapegoating.

‘Send all refugees home’

Kilicdaroglu, known for his smoother-moving, softer-spoken approach, made a remarkable foray into xenophobia and fear-mongering as part of his watershed campaign strategy, including -widespread Turkish happiness regarding more than 4 million refugees in the country.

He promised to “send all refugees home” if elected, and accused Erdogan of flooding the country with them. He also said that Turkey’s cities would be subject to criminal gangs and refugee mafias if ​​​​​​​​​​​Erdogan remained in power. The majority of refugees in Turkey are from neighboring war-torn Syria.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the 74-year-old leader of the center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP, delivers a press conference in Ankara on May 15, 2023.

Bulent Kilic | Afp | Getty Images

Before that, Erdogan’s main rival had been running on a platform to regain economic stability, democratic values ​​and better relations with Europe and NATO.

Kilicdaroglu’s new strategy seemed to be a response to the fact that a hard-line third-party nationalist candidate, Sinan Ogan, won just over 5% of the vote on May 14, effectively making him a royalist. Whoever Ogan agreed with is likely to gain a potentially decisive share of his electorate – and despite Kilicdaroglu raising the nationalist and anti-nationalist rhetoric refugees, Ogan ultimately supported Erdogan.

“Kilicdaroglu has taken a tougher line on immigration and security in the past…

At the same time, Erdogan’s supporters circulated several false posters and videos that aimed to make Kilicdaroglu’s party, the CHP, support Kurdish militant groups that Ankara classifies as terrorists.

German news outlet DW reported that the posters were fake, citing Turkish intelligence agency Teyit.org.

And in a television interview on Tuesday, Erdogan admitted to film screening by doctor during his campaign campaigns in Kilicdaroglu which falsely showed the latter joining Kurdish terrorists.

Turkey's opposition unlikely to gain ground on May 28, economist says

In a surprise twist, a right-wing, anti-immigrant Victory Party threw its support behind Kilicdaroglu on Wednesday over his promise to return refugees to Syria – dividing right-wing groups between the two presidential contest.

“Now we have two anti-refugee political leaders supporting the competing candidates,” Ragip Soylu, Turkey bureau chief at Middle East Eye, said in a Twitter post.

Economy, earthquakes

People carry a body bag as local residents wait to extricate their relatives from the rubble of collapsed buildings in Hatay, on February 14, 2023, after a magnitude 7.8 earthquake hit the south-east of the country.

Bulent Kilic | Afp | Getty Images

But Erdogan seems largely out of touch politically; he still won the majority of votes in the largely Islamically conservative regions of Turkey’s earthquake-hit east. In addition, his powerful AK Party won a majority in the Turkish Parliament, meaning that his opponent would have far less power as president.

“Erdogan wasted no time in asking voters to support him to avoid an irreconcilable split between parliament and the president,” Kinnear said. Kilicdaroglu, meanwhile, appealed to the 8 million Gen Z and Kurdish voters who did not vote in the first round to come out and return.

Already, however, his anti-refugee rhetoric has angered many of his supporters and led to the resignation of some of his campaign allies.

With the owner’s influence looking more secure than ever, analysts are not holding their breath for a return to economic normality. Already Turkey’s central bank is aggressively enforcing new rules to prevent local lira purchases of foreign currency, in an effort to prevent further falls in the lira. The currency fell to its lowest level against the dollar in six months after the first round of voting, when Erdogan’s lead became clear.

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“Investors should not expect a fundamental shift in Turkey’s unorthodox approach to economic policymaking anytime soon. “Erdogan’s belief that lower interest rates lead to lower inflation, which affects monetary policy, continues to unsettle the markets,” Kinnear wrote.

Amid speculation about the lira’s direction after the vote, Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the only question now is “how weak is the lira?” ‘ go and how, without the possibility of using higher interest rates, the CBRT (Turkish). central bank) to prevent a repeat of deflation.”

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