Global warming will cause super downpours

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Scientists at the University of Copenhagen, in collaboration with the Danish Meteorological Institute, have shown that the historic blizzard that hit Copenhagen in July 2011 was caused by global warming. This information has been given in a paper published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Researchers conducted several weather simulations on July 2, 2011, when heavy rain caused flooding north of Copenhagen. Model runs (13 in total) correspond to one of five global temperature scenarios: -1 degrees Celsius normal (pre-industrial era), 0 (normal in 2011), and +1, +2 and +3 degrees Celsius. The spacing between model data points, known as the grid size, was about 2.5 kilometers. By comparison, global climate model grid points are typically separated by at least 50 kilometers.

Scientists have shown that both the risk of flooding and the risk of unprecedented rainfall intensity increase with climate warming. In particular, the risk of such events occurring almost doubles without the presence of anthropogenic warming.

Although the catastrophic rainfall with €800 million in damages cannot be directly linked to global warming, the authors note that the phenomenon is in line with climate model predictions. According to the authors, the results of the study are very important in terms of decision-making when humanity is faced with natural disasters that may be directly related to climate change.

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