Here’s how much economists expect China’s GDP to grow this year
Workers make charging equipment for new energy vehicles at a workshop of Shandong Dingsheng Electric Equipment in Zaozhuang, east China’s Shandong province.
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Now that China has ended its strict Covid controls, the economy could return to growth of more than 5%.
The latest factory data in China marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years, indicating that further recovery is ahead.
Beijing set an ambitious target of around 5.5% growth for 2022. But the Covid controls and the real estate downturn weighed heavily. China’s GDP grew by just 3% last year.
On Sunday, the Chinese government is widely expected to announce a GDP growth target of around or above 5% for the year.
“This year a rebound in the housing market (as well as the abandonment of its ‘zero Covid’ policy) will help China’s GDP growth to improve,” said Societe Generale.
The bank is the most optimistic of the companies surveyed by CNBC, with a GDP growth forecast of 5.8%.
Here is the full list of predictions:
The average estimate among economists is slightly higher than the expected official target, at 5.21%, according to a CNBC survey.
Among the most positive announcements is Oxford Economics, with a forecast of 4.5%.
“The difficulties of re-opening mean that authorities may not see it as necessary[y] to do as much (or implement a large stimulus package similar to past easing cycles), especially after a year when public finances were already stretched significantly,” said Louise Loo, the company’s chief economist, in a note.