Monday Night Football picks, line, spread: Broncos vs. Bills predictions, NFL picks from expert on 16-5 roll

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The Buffalo Bills will look to get back on track at home when they host the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Bills (5-4) have lost three of their last five games, including a 24-18 loss to the Bengals on Sunday Night Football last week. However, their last two losses have been on the road and Buffalo is tough to beat at Highmark Stadium. Denver (3-5) comes in with momentum and should be healthier coming off the bye. They won back-to-back games before the off week, including a 24-9 win over the Chiefs in Week 8.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The SportsLine consensus lists Buffalo as a seven-point favorite, while the over/under is 47.5 in the Latest Broncos vs Bills numbers. Before you make your Bills vs. Broncos picks, you need to see what SportsLine NFL expert Matt Severance has to say.

Severance is a well-connected writer and high volume commentator who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Severance quickly established himself as a leading expert in multiple sports. In fact, he is 16-5 over his last 21 NFL picks involving the Broncos. Anyone who follows him is far up.

Now, Severance has locked in on Broncos vs. Bills from both sides and locked in his NFL picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and trends for Bills vs. Broncos:

  • Broncos vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -7
  • Broncos vs. Bills over/under: 47.5 points
  • Broncos vs. Bills money line: Denver +268, Buffalo -348
  • DEN: Broncos are 7-5 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs
  • BUF: Bills are 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites
  • Broncos vs. Bills picks: See picks at SportsLine
  • Broncos vs Bills live stream: fubo (try free)

Why the Bills can cover it

Buffalo has won the last three meetings, all by at least 10 points. The most recent was a 48-19 victory in Denver in 2020, when Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen threw for 359 yards. The Broncos defense is no better this season, ranking last in yards (406 per game) and points allowed (28.3). Allen is fourth in the NFL with 2,423 passing yards and second in completion percentage (71.3). He has 233 rushing yards and has accounted for 24 touchdowns.

The Bills are 11-1 in their last 12 games at Highmark Stadium, and Allen and receiver Stefon Diggs could have a big night. Diggs had 147 yards in the last meeting and led the league in receptions (70). He is third in both receiving yards (834) and receiving touchdowns (seven). The Bills defense will try to make life miserable for Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, who has been sacked 26 times. The Three Bills rush, led by Leonard Floyd (7.5), has at least five sacks. See which team is back here.

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver has taken a step forward in the past few weeks and is getting a break from the bye. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in a bye week and have covered in consecutive games after starting 0-5-1 ATS. The defense is still last in yards and scoring, but Denver has allowed 45 points in their last three games.

Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is fifth in the NFL in passer rating and has 16 TD passes against four interceptions. Courtland Sutton has scored in three straight games and has 33 catches for 380 yards. Javonte Williams had a career-high 30 touches in Week 8 and had 98 total yards. The offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play (10th in the NFL). See which team to choose here.

How to make Broncos vs. Bills picks

Severance has analyzed this game, and while leaning Under on the point as a whole, he’s also found a critical X-factor that makes it jump all over one side of the distribution. He’s just sharing what’s in, and what’s behind, at SportsLine.

Who will win the Bills vs. Broncos on Monday Night Football, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread redundant? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs Broncos spread you need to jump on, all from the red-hot expert on a 16-5 roll on the Broncos bricks, and find out.

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