Sunday’s race at Las Vegas will not be a playoff preview

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LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 16: Pit Boss has a bird's eye view of the pre-race stage before the start of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff South Point 400, on October 16, 2022, at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV .  (Photo by Christopher Trim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

No driver has won NASCAR Cup Series races at Las Vegas since Jimmie Johnson won three straight from 2005 to 2007. (Photo by Christopher Trim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Whoever wins Sunday’s Cup Series race in Las Vegas will most likely not win on the track this fall.

Las Vegas hasn’t produced a back-to-back winner since Jimmie Johnson won three consecutive races from 2005-07. That was back when Las Vegas only had one Cup Series race. He has had two since the 2018 season when a second run was added during the playoffs.

Joey Logano is the only driver to win multiple races at Vegas in the five seasons the line has held two races. Logano has three wins in that race and Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman all have one.

All but Busch are still active. Can they get a second win on the way? Or will Kyle Busch get a second win? Kyle Busch hasn’t won in his hometown since 2009.

Here’s a look at the odds for Sunday’s race via BetMGM.

Favorite ones

  • Kyle Busch (+550)

  • Kyle Larson (+700)

  • Joey Logano (+800)

  • Ross Chatton (+800)

  • Ryan Blaney (+1000)

Busch gets the favorite status because of his win a week ago at Auto Club Speedway and his average finish of 10.8 at the track. Logano has the best average finish at 8.5 to go along with his three wins. Larson has nine top finishes in 13 starts and Blaney has eight in the same number of starts. Chastain has finished third and second in his two Vegas starts with Trackhouse Racing.

Fairly good value

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+1200)

  • Tyler Reddick (+2000)

Truex has two wins and 13 top 10s in 22 starts and an average finish of 10.1. He had a good run going at Auto Club before a loose tire put him down two laps. Reddick has three top 10s in six starts and 23XI Racing has shown great speed on 1.5-mile tracks.

Don’t bet on this driver

Byron has three top finishes in 10 starts at Vegas and was not competitive at Auto Club Speedway.

Are you looking for a long view?

Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing may be making some gains. Keselowski was seventh at Auto Club and his Vegas finish improved seven spots from 24th to 17th over the two races in 2022.

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