UFC Fight Night Predictions – Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis: Fight card, start time, odds, live stream

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis might just be the ultimate grappler vs. striker that the UFC heavyweight division can produce. Almeida vs. Lewis headlines UFC Fight Night in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Saturday night.

Almeida (19-2) trails Sergei Pavlovich, Tom Aspinall and Cyril Gane in the UFC’s official rankings, but completes a quartet of new-age heavyweights to fear the old guard. The monstrous athlete has finished all five UFC opponents and averaged nearly six and a half takedowns every 15 minutes. Almeida, 32, knows that he and his peers are disrupting the status quo.

“We are a new generation that is perhaps slimmer and more shapely. No punches or anything,” Almeida told CBS Sports through a translator before his appearance in his native Brazil. “You could even see Derrick Lewis in his last fight coming in a lot smaller. I think they understand that a new generation is coming in and they have to change.”

Almeida was originally scheduled to fight No. 5 heavyweight Curtis Blaydes, the division’s longtime ace. It was the perfect test to determine the strength of Almeida’s struggle. Almeida will now fight his way back up the ranks after Blaydes’ injury, but there is a silver lining.

“I was going to fight Curtis, and honestly if I beat him, he would do me better in the ratings,” Almeida said. “But unfortunately, he was hurt from a couple of weeks ago and they brought me in Derrick Lewis. He is a very popular and well-known man.”

Check out the full interview with Jailton Almeida.

No one sees the turnaround quite like Lewis (27-11, 1 NC). The heavyweight slugger holds the all-time UFC KO record with 14 finishes. Lewis’ defense isn’t unstoppable, but his power is so great that shooting him can be a fool’s errand. Just ask Blaydes. Lewis also has the legendary, tongue-in-cheek ability to simply stand up from under his heavy foes. Lewis says he took the fight because there was nothing else available and he doesn’t know much about Almeida.

“I didn’t know anything about it and I still don’t know anything about it, but my coaches say that he’s just a man in custody. I never saw his fights. I’m supposed to come together as a team tomorrow and fight it all and study it.

Lewis has a dry sense of humor so it’s hard to gauge how honest he is with his laissez-faire attitude. What’s more convincing is Lewis’ newfound commitment to the fight game. Lewis once contemplated retirement but has been renewed after snapping his first losing streak with an elephant-sized flying knee against Marcos Rogerio de Lima that you have to see to believe. Lewis, 38, recently signed a new “lucrative” eight-fight contract with the UFC and plans to stick around for the long haul.

“I’m more motivated than ever. The UFC put their faith in me and gave me another contract…” Lewis said. “It gave me more confidence to put in all my work in the gym and in the Octagon without regretting their decision.

“I’m here for the long haul. It’s crazy that I was in 2017 to give this up.”

Check out the full interview with Derrick Lewis below.

The undercard is full of Brazilian talent looking to make a splash in front of their countrymen and women. One of the most notable fights in the co-main event is when Gabriel Bonfim takes on Nicolas Dalby at welterweight. Bonfim has made three appearances with all three fights ending in submission wins. In addition, Rodrigo Nascimento is set to face rising middleweight contender Don’Tale Mayes, Caio Borralho fights Abu Magomedov and Rodolfo Vieira takes on Armen Petrosyan at middleweight.

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Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to the predictions and picks for the main event.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: November 4 | Start time: 9pm ET (main card)
Location: Arena Ibirapuera — Sao Paulo
TV channel: ESPN+

Prediction

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis: There is one reason to be hesitant about Almeida despite the steep odds: he doesn’t get beaten often. But it’s not because of his amazing defense. It’s because he sets up opponents so quickly. The UFC’s sample size for Almeida’s incredible defense is paltry. He has only taken nine strikes over six scheduled fights. Seven of these came in his debut “Contender Series” against Nasrudin Nasrudinov. Technically, it only defends 25% of incoming strikes. That may sound like a deterrent, but Lewis is the last person you want to test it against. Almeida must choose his applications wisely without complacency. Lewis’s power can cause fear and poor shot selection from enemies. It’s vital that Almeida hides his entrances and chains without getting off to a slow start. Lewis also loses most of his fights on the feet despite his fearsome reputation. Almeida can crack — maybe not like Pavlovich or Tai Tuivasa — and knock out the less durable Lewis. I truly believe that Almeida is a future Big Four UFC heavyweight, so I’ll be siding with him cleanly. Almeida via SUB1

Who will win UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who made more than $6,200 in 2022, and find out.